Book Market 2025 & 2026: When Reality Catches Up With the Sugarcoating

I follow the annually published economic figures of the German Publishers and Booksellers Association on the German book market with great attention. For a long time, I have viewed the development critically, including in my article on last year’s figures. While the industry still tried to sound optimistic despite catastrophic numbers last year, it has now arrived—nominally and without adjusting for inflation—in reality. Let’s take a look at the development. Be brave, because what is being presented requires emotional resilience for anyone who reads a lot.

The press release of the Publishers and Booksellers Association sounds very different from a year ago. They call for political action. They lament “decades of failures in education policy,” because sales among very young consumers have collapsed dramatically. They complain about the poor economic situation (the loss of purchasing power is hitting all sectors hard) and, of course, about artificial intelligence. So how do the figures look?

The Year 2025: When Losses Suddenly Become Visible Nominally

For years, the book industry relied on a convenient statistical sedative: because books became more expensive, declining sales volumes could be compensated by higher prices, allowing publishers and retailers to present a black zero or a small nominal increase at the end of the year. But in 2025, that no longer worked:

• Total revenue: Bookselling businesses lost -2.7 % in revenue compared to the previous year.
• Publishers in the red: Pure book sales by publishers fell by -1.3 %, and total publishing revenue across all segments declined by -0.9 %.
• Loss of buyers: Overall, the industry lost -4.9 % of its buyers in 2025; buyer reach in the total population fell from 36.5 % to 34.4 %. A trend that has continued at an alarming pace for more than ten years.

According to the Federal Statistical Office, consumer price inflation in Germany was 2.2 % in 2025. If an industry declines nominally by 2.7 % while the general price level rises by just over 2 %, this means a real revenue loss of around 5 %.

Added to this is the cost–price squeeze: for printing, paper, logistics, energy, and wages, publishers and retailers continue to pay high prices after the inflation waves of previous years. But at the checkout, the limit has been reached. For a new release (first edition), the average retail price in 2025 across all subject groups was already a hefty €30.24 (or €16.55 for paperbacks). When household budgets are strained by living costs, books—being price-sensitive consumer goods—remain on the shelf.

Collapse Among Children, Crash Among Young Adults

The most worrying finding of the current report does not concern balance sheets, but the readers of tomorrow: The number of book buyers aged 10 to 15 collapsed by a staggering 30.6 % in 2025.

Almost one-third of the youngest age group was lost to the book market within a single year, and their spending fell by -23.8 %. But anyone hoping that the much-discussed “BookTok effect” would cushion the problem among older teens will be unpleasantly surprised when looking at the age groups:

• 10 to 15 years: -30.6 % (spending: -23.8 %)
• 16 to 19 years: +7.7 % (spending: +6.3 %)
• 20 to 29 years: -17.8 % (spending: -8.5 %)
• 30 to 39 years: +0.6 %
• 40 to 49 years: +1.2 %
• 50 to 59 years: -8.0 %
• 60 to 69 years: +1.1 %
• 70 years and older: 0 %

These figures paint a disturbing picture: the 16–19 age group forms an isolated special zone. Here, TikTok recommendations, New Adult hypes (+9.6 %), and Young Adult phenomena (+4.8 %) still have measurable effects. But this phenomenon is deceptive:

1. Few younger readers will follow: Children and younger teens (10–15 years) are reading and buying dramatically less.
2. The transition into adult life: As soon as young people enter training, university, or work at age 20 and start paying their own bills, interest collapses: the 20–29 age group loses almost 18 % of its book buyers.

Non-fiction and Guides

Fiction grew by 1.2 % and, with a revenue share of 38.1 %, remains the largest segment. But all other areas are losing massively. Guides (-8.1 %), non-fiction (-4.6 %), travel (-11.6 %), science / medicine / IT / technology (-13.4 %), and social sciences / law / economics (-9.8 %) all suffer significant losses in revenue share.

This does not surprise me, because artificial intelligence is gradually taking over these areas. Private individuals can already access major frontier models for around €20 per month. Those who make only a few requests or use Copilot pay nothing but receive all the knowledge—tailored to their needs—that used to be found in exactly these books. Why buy a guidebook when AI provides the information for free and extremely well prepared? Why buy a travel guide when you can simply ask the AI on-site? Why buy a book on software development when AI guides you step by step through the learning process? This trend makes perfect sense to me, and if you look at the capabilities of current AI models, they no longer make mistakes on popular and widely known topics, unlike a few years ago.

My prediction is that this trend will continue even more noticeably in the coming years. The older part of the population, which still relies on books and feels uncomfortable with AI, will gradually be replaced by younger people who turn to AI rather than guidebooks. A development that cannot be stopped and one that publishers must adapt to. After all, who still has a complete Brockhaus encyclopedia on their shelf?

Audio Pulls Ahead, E‑Books Stand Still

While printed books struggle with declining print runs and sales volumes, the shift in media consumption continues:

• Audiobooks boom (+13.2 %): The audio segment remains the most dynamic branch of the industry. The driver is the digital business: streaming grew by +23.1 %, downloads by +9.2 %.
• Stagnation in e‑books (±0.0 %): E‑book revenue stagnated in 2025. In the consumer market (excluding school and specialist books), the revenue share remains at a meagre 6.3 % (previous year: 6.1 %).

Audio caters to the modern need for multitasking: books are “listened to on the side” while commuting, cleaning, or exercising. There is nothing wrong with that, but we should be aware of the cognitive consequences: a streamed audiobook requires a different mental presence than the concentrated and quiet process of reading complex texts over days and weeks. Reading time with the eyes is systematically losing out to the audio stream in the headphones.

First Half of 2026: At the Limit of Price Increases

Anyone hoping for a recovery in 2026 will be disappointed by the current half-year figures of the Publishers and Booksellers Association:

• Revenue: -4.1 % compared to the previous year
• Sales volume: -4.5 % fewer copies sold
• Price development: only +0.4 %

This reveals the dilemma in all its clarity: given the price increases of recent years, the room for further price hikes is simply exhausted. Customers are no longer willing to accept them. Sales losses of -4.5 % now impact revenue almost one-to-one. There is no way to sugarcoat this anymore.

Conclusion: Farewell to the Leading Medium

The current figures of the Publishers and Booksellers Association confirm what has long been downplayed: the German book market is in a structural downward trend. Adjusted for inflation, the market has lost dramatic economic and societal substance over the past two years. The market is splitting ever more deeply:

1. The event and lifestyle market: high-priced collector’s editions, romantasy, and social-media hits purchased by an engaged but narrowly defined target group.
2. The niche of demanding reading: literature, classics, and well-founded non-fiction, where publishers face increasingly risky calculations due to exploding costs and declining buyer numbers.

When children aged 10 to 15 stop reading by one-third and young adults begin to abandon books en masse from age 20, a society loses more than just bookshop revenue. It loses the ability for depth, for tolerance of ambiguity, and for sustained thinking.

How do you see the figures? Do you feel the rising book prices in your budget, and how do you experience the reading habits of young people in your everyday life? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!